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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vancouver FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over HFX Wanderers FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 3-1 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.21 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.61 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vancouver FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.53 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 45%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Vancouver FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 56%, HFX Wanderers FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 0.87 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights