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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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HFX Wanderers FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vancouver FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat Vancouver FC 0-2 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.93 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.76 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.19 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 33/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 55%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 57%, HFX Wanderers FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights