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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Vancouver FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Vancouver FC 0-1 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.76 xG and Forge 2.28 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.38 against Forge attack 1.28 / defence 0.65, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 9% | Draw 21% | Forge 70%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 55%, Forge 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Forge's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights