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Forge cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vancouver FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Vancouver FC 0-2 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.89 xG and Forge 1.58 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.28 against Forge attack 0.98 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 19% | Draw 29% | Forge 52%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 57%, Forge 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Forge's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights