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Stalemate at Vancouver FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 0-0 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.91 xG and Cavalry FC 1.85 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Cavalry FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.77, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 58%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 51%, Cavalry FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights