🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Vancouver FC edge out Atlético Ottawa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC beat Atlético Ottawa 2-1 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.71 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.36 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 44% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 29%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 55%, Atlético Ottawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights