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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 2-2 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.02 xG and Atlético Ottawa 2.12 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vancouver FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.26 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 17% | Draw 20% | Atlético Ottawa 63%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 57%, Atlético Ottawa 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights