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Stalemate at Valour's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour and York United finished level at 0-0 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.17 xG and York United 1.64 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valour fell 1.2 short of their projected output. York United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.92 / defence 1.24 against York United attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 25% | Draw 28% | York United 46%, with York United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 61%, York United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

York United's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights