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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valour cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vancouver FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour beat Vancouver FC 3-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.95 xG and Vancouver FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.74 / defence 1.00 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 26% | Draw 33% | Vancouver FC 41%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 43%, Vancouver FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valour 0.96 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights