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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vancouver FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC beat Valour 1-3 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.00 xG and Vancouver FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vancouver FC outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Vancouver FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Valour 28% | Draw 36% | Vancouver FC 36%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 43%, Vancouver FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valour 0.96 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights