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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valour and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Valour and Pacific FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.72 xG and Pacific FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against Pacific FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 48% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 25%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 60%, Pacific FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Pacific FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valour 0.90 PPG, Pacific FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights