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Stalemate at Valour's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour and Pacific FC finished level at 0-0 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.77 xG and Pacific FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valour fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Pacific FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 52% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 23%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 43%, Pacific FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valour 0.96 PPG, Pacific FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights