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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant HFX Wanderers FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat Valour 0-3 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.62 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Valour fell 1.6 short of their projected output. HFX Wanderers FC outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.87 / defence 1.18 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 44% | Draw 30% | HFX Wanderers FC 26%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual HFX Wanderers FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 61%, HFX Wanderers FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valour 0.94 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights