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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as HFX Wanderers FC edge out Valour 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat Valour 0-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.34 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valour fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Valour 32% | Draw 30% | HFX Wanderers FC 37%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 43%, HFX Wanderers FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valour 0.96 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights