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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Valour defy the odds to beat Forge 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour beat Forge 2-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.95 xG and Forge 1.60 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against Forge attack 1.13 / defence 0.74, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 21% | Draw 28% | Forge 51%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 60%, Forge 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Forge's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights