🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Forge run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Valour 0-5 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.92 xG and Forge 1.23 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Valour fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Forge outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Forge attack 1.06 / defence 0.70, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 25% | Draw 34% | Forge 41%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 43%, Forge 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Forge's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights