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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Valour defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour beat Cavalry FC 2-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.89 xG and Cavalry FC 1.61 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Cavalry FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 19% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 53%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 58%, Cavalry FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights