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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Valour 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat Valour 1-2 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.85 xG and Cavalry FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.79 / defence 1.26 against Cavalry FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.69, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 19% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 50%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 56%, Cavalry FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights