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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out Valour 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Valour 1-2 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.99 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.79 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.17 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 19% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 54%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 60%, Atlético Ottawa 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights