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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC meet at CEPSUM Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 July 2026 at 23:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Supra du Quebec have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Supra du Quebec's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at CEPSUM Stadium this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vancouver FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Supra du Quebec, 1.40 for Vancouver FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Vancouver FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Supra du Quebec 0W, Vancouver FC 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Current Standings

In the Canadian Premier League table, Vancouver FC sit 5th on 14 points, 2 places and 3 points ahead of Supra du Quebec in 7th.

Supra du Quebec's home record this season stands at 2W 1D 3L. Away from home, Vancouver FC have posted 1W 1D 3L in Canadian Premier League this season.

Trading & In-Play

Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Supra du Quebec 70% and Vancouver FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 50% | Vancouver FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.54 xG and Vancouver FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Vancouver FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 67% | Vancouver FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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