Supra du Quebec 1-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 37%, yet in-form Forge provide a compelling counter-argument — this Supra du Quebec vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Forge travel to CEPSUM Stadium to take on Supra du Quebec. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Supra du Quebec stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's home record at CEPSUM Stadium: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Canadian Premier League appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Forge — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Forge — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Forge, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Supra du Quebec.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Forge winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Forge have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Supra du Quebec in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Forge in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Supra du Quebec 83% and Forge 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 61% | Forge 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and Forge 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Forge attack 1.004 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Forge games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | Forge 35%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Forge 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Supra du Quebec as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Forge (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 78% | Forge 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | Forge 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.51 / Forge 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Forge attack 1.004 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Forge xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Forge kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Forge kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Supra du Quebec 1 - 0 Forge.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Forge part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Forge is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 37% chance of winning, Forge a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Forge?
Record (3 meetings): Supra du Quebec 0W | Draws 0 | Forge 3W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Forge in?
Supra du Quebec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Forge (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Supra du Quebec's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Supra du Quebec's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.57
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.97
1.46
Forge xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.46 for Forge, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Supra du Quebec have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 5W 4D 9L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge's form line: 13W 2D 3L from 18 games, 2.28 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Supra du Quebec.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Supra du Quebec have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, Forge have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.61 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Supra du Quebec and Forge in coming into this match?
Supra du Quebec have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Forge have gone 13W 2D 3L in their last 18 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Supra du Quebec at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Supra du Quebec at home: 0.89 PPG; Forge away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Supra du Quebec or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Supra du Quebec have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Forge in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Supra du Quebec and Forge runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Supra du Quebec's record when hosting Forge specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Supra du Quebec
0
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Forge?
From 4 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 1, Forge have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-0 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Forge see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Supra du Quebec at 78%, Forge at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Supra du Quebec and 67% for Forge. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Supra du Quebec play Forge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Supra du Quebec's games and 67% of Forge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Supra du Quebec vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Supra du Quebec's matches and 67% of Forge's.
Prediction vindicated as Supra du Quebec edge out Forge 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec beat Forge 1-0 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and Forge 1.46 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Forge landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Forge attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | Forge 35%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Supra du Quebec 61%, Forge 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Forge's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Supra du Quebec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.