Supra du Quebec 2-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CEPSUM Stadium plays host to Supra du Quebec versus Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Semi-finals. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Supra du Quebec (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Supra du Quebec's home record at CEPSUM Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CEPSUM Stadium this season.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Supra du Quebec, 2.00 for Cavalry FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cavalry FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Cavalry FC, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2026, ended 0–6 with Cavalry FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cavalry FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Supra du Quebec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Supra du Quebec 68% and Cavalry FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 64% | Cavalry FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.54 xG and Cavalry FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cavalry FC attack 1.002 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Cavalry FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 60% | Cavalry FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Semi-finals | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.54 / Cavalry FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cavalry FC attack 1.002 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Cavalry FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Supra du Quebec 2 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC is a Semi-finals fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
Record (4 meetings): Supra du Quebec 0W | Draws 1 | Cavalry FC 3W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC in?
Supra du Quebec (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Supra du Quebec's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.00x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.61
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
3.00
1.46
Cavalry FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.46 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Supra du Quebec's recent record stands at 11W 5D 12L from 28 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 6D 4L across 28 games — 2.14 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Supra du Quebec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Supra du Quebec have managed 5W 3D 6L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 7W 3D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 2.07 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cavalry FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Supra du Quebec have gone 11W 5D 12L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 18W 6D 4L in their last 28 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Supra du Quebec at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Supra du Quebec at home: 1.29 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Supra du Quebec or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Supra du Quebec have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 6-0 on 26 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Supra du Quebec have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Supra du Quebec
1
Draws
3
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Supra du Quebec 2-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Supra du Quebec 57%, Cavalry FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Supra du Quebec) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Supra du Quebec play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Supra du Quebec's recent matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Supra du Quebec's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Supra du Quebec edge out Cavalry FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec beat Cavalry FC 2-1 at CEPSUM Stadium, Semi-finals, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.54 xG and Cavalry FC 1.46 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cavalry FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Supra du Quebec 64%, Cavalry FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Supra du Quebec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.