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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Atlético Ottawa make the trip to CEPSUM Stadium to face Supra du Quebec in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Atlético Ottawa (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.46 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.036 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Atlético Ottawa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 35% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 37%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Atlético Ottawa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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