Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to CEPSUM Stadium to face Supra du Quebec in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Supra du Quebec's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at CEPSUM Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atlético Ottawa are 0.50 PPG clear of Supra du Quebec in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Supra du Quebec register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Atlético Ottawa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Supra du Quebec lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2026, ended 3–5 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Supra du Quebec 80% and Atlético Ottawa 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Supra du Quebec 60% | Atlético Ottawa 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.012 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Atlético Ottawa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 35%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Atlético Ottawa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Supra du Quebec are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atlético Ottawa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 75% | Atlético Ottawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.51 / Atlético Ottawa 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.012 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Atlético Ottawa xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Supra du Quebec 1 - 2 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 37% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (2 meetings): Supra du Quebec 0W | Draws 0 | Atlético Ottawa 2W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa in?
Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Supra du Quebec's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Atlético Ottawa's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.01x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.58
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.99
1.48
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.48 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Supra du Quebec's recent record stands at 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atlético Ottawa, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 5L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atlético Ottawa by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Supra du Quebec heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Supra du Quebec have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atlético Ottawa's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atlético Ottawa's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.67 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Atlético Ottawa in 80%.
Last 15 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Supra du Quebec have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Supra du Quebec at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Supra du Quebec's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Supra du Quebec at home: 1.14 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atlético Ottawa have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Supra du Quebec have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Supra du Quebec
0
Draws
3
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa?
From 3 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 0, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Supra du Quebec, 86% for Atlético Ottawa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Supra du Quebec and 86% for Atlético Ottawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Supra du Quebec play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Supra du Quebec's games and 86% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Supra du Quebec's matches and 86% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Supra du Quebec have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat Supra du Quebec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Supra du Quebec 1-2 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.48 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 35%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Supra du Quebec 60%, Atlético Ottawa 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.