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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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York United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Pacific FC 1-3 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.24 xG and York United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. York United outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.91 against York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 37% | Draw 32% | York United 31%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, York United 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

York United's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.31 PPG, York United 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights