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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat York United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pacific FC beat York United 2-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.22 xG and York United 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 29% | Draw 31% | York United 40%, with York United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, York United 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

York United's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.31 PPG, York United 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights