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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pacific FC and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Pacific FC and Vancouver FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.09 xG and Vancouver FC 1.87 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Vancouver FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.24, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 43% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 34%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 42%, Vancouver FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.02 PPG, Vancouver FC 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights