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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pacific FC and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Pacific FC and Vancouver FC drew 4-4 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.13 xG and Vancouver FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Vancouver FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 35% | Draw 33% | Vancouver FC 32%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 45%, Vancouver FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.30 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights