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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Valour run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour beat Pacific FC 1-4 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.28 xG and Valour 1.58 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Valour outscored their 1.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.25 against Valour attack 1.03 / defence 1.29, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 51% | Draw 24% | Valour 24%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Valour 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Valour's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 0.98 PPG, Valour 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights