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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pacific FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pacific FC beat Valour 2-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.38 xG and Valour 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valour landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Valour attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 42% | Draw 27% | Valour 31%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 45%, Valour 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.30 PPG, Valour 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights