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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pacific FC and HFX Wanderers FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pacific FC and HFX Wanderers FC finished level at 2-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.43 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 39% | Draw 30% | HFX Wanderers FC 31%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 41%, HFX Wanderers FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.07 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights