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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat HFX Wanderers FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pacific FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 3-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.38 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.19 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 33% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 39%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 42%, HFX Wanderers FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 0.98 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights