Pacific FC 0-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 42%, yet in-form Forge provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pacific FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (Group Stage). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 23:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Forge (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Forge away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Forge are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Pacific FC's last 10 home games and Forge's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Pacific FC's games and 70% of Forge's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Forge, who have 5 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Pacific FC 0–4 Forge — a Forge win.
Forge have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 44% versus Forge 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | Forge 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pacific FC surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Forge have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.67 xG and Forge 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.977 / defence 1.082 | Forge attack 1.014 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 28 games and Forge's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 42% | Draw 27% | Forge 30%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.36 | Draw 3.65 | Forge 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Forge (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pacific FC's last 10 home games and Forge's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Forge 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Pacific FC 28 games, Forge 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 42% | Draw 27% | Forge 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Pacific FC 1.67 / Forge 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.977 / def 1.082 | Forge attack 1.014 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Forge xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 0 - 1 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Canadian Premier League fixture (Group Stage) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 42% chance of winning, Forge a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.98) and Forge's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.01x) against Pacific FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 28 games and Forge's last 28, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.65
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.39
Forge xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.39 for Forge, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 57 games, going 14W 15D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.77 PPG from 57 outings (29W 14D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Forge carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 9W 7D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
Pacific FC (Home) vs Forge (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 14W 15D 28L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Forge have gone 29W 14D 14L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Forge away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Forge in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pacific FC and Forge, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won Forge 4-0 Pacific FC on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Pacific FC 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 44%, Forge 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pacific FC) and 52% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and Forge matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 56% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pacific FC and Forge matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pacific FC's recent games and 52% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Forge matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 74% of Forge's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forge defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 0-1 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.67 xG and Forge 1.39 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Forge attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 42% | Draw 27% | Forge 30%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Forge 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.