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Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Pacific FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Pacific FC 0-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.13 xG and Forge 1.25 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Forge attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 35/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 31% | Draw 33% | Forge 36%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 43%, Forge 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Forge's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.33 PPG, Forge 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights