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Forge cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Pacific FC 0-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.39 xG and Forge 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Forge outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Forge attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 47% | Draw 27% | Forge 26%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 43%, Forge 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Forge's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.33 PPG, Forge 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights