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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pacific FC and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pacific FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 3-3 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.48 xG and Cavalry FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cavalry FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 40% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 29%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 43%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights