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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pacific FC beat Cavalry FC 1-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.22 xG and Cavalry FC 1.50 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Cavalry FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 29% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 41%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 40%, Cavalry FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Pacific FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights