🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Atlético Ottawa (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pacific FC face Atlético Ottawa.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Atlético Ottawa travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 July 2025, 01:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Atlético Ottawa's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atlético Ottawa are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Atlético Ottawa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Pacific FC's 1 victories.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Atlético Ottawa winning.

It is worth noting that Atlético Ottawa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Atlético Ottawa in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 39% versus Atlético Ottawa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 41% | Atlético Ottawa 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.29 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.089 / defence 1.228 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.111 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.300. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Pacific FC games / 43 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pacific FC 27% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 48%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Atlético Ottawa 2.08. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 50% | Atlético Ottawa 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights