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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, as Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.71 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.38 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 44% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 29%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Atlético Ottawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights