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Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 0-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.29 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.77 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 27% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 48%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 41%, Atlético Ottawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights