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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out Pacific FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 0-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.41 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.48 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.27 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 34% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 37%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 45%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pacific FC's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.31 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights