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HFX Wanderers FC and York United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC and York United finished level at 1-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. It was 1-1 at the break, the second half adding nothing to the tally. Scorers: J. Altobelli (22') · I. Johnston (35'). The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.79 xG and York United 1.19 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against York United attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 50% | Draw 27% | York United 23%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 60%, York United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 67% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

York United's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 79% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.23 PPG, York United 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments