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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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HFX Wanderers FC and York United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Wanderers Grounds, Round of 16, as HFX Wanderers FC and York United drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.70 xG and York United 0.81 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against York United attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 56% | Draw 28% | York United 16%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 61%, York United 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

York United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.23 PPG, York United 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights