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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant HFX Wanderers FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of York United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat York United 4-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 21, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.15 xG and York United 1.06 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against York United attack 0.90 / defence 0.71, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 35% | Draw 34% | York United 31%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 60%, York United 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

York United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.23 PPG, York United 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights