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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 17, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.92 xG and Vancouver FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Vancouver FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 55% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 19%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Vancouver FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 59%, Vancouver FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.23 PPG, Vancouver FC 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights