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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as HFX Wanderers FC edge out Vancouver FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.49 xG and Vancouver FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vancouver FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Vancouver FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 45% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 25%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 59%, Vancouver FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.27 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights