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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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HFX Wanderers FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat Valour 3-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 13, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.90 xG and Valour 0.75 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.75 against Valour attack 0.74 / defence 1.40, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 64% | Draw 23% | Valour 13%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 59%, Valour 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Valour's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.31 PPG, Valour 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights