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Poisson model rates HFX Wanderers FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec meet at Wanderers Grounds in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 July 2026 at 22:00 UTC.

Current Form

HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

HFX Wanderers FC at Wanderers Grounds this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Supra du Quebec (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Supra du Quebec's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — HFX Wanderers FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Supra du Quebec in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for HFX Wanderers FC, 1 for Supra du Quebec and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Supra du Quebec winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Statistical Overview

HFX Wanderers FC's cumulative Canadian Premier League record this campaign: 4W 3D 6L from 13 matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 13 games (8%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-5-2. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Where They Stand

The standings have HFX Wanderers FC (4th, 15 pts) 3 places above Supra du Quebec (7th, 11 pts) — a 4-point gap in Canadian Premier League.

On home turf, HFX Wanderers FC's Canadian Premier League record reads 2W 2D 2L this term. Supra du Quebec have gone 1W 1D 2L on their travels. HFX Wanderers FC: Promotion - Canadian Premier League (Play Offs: Semi-finals).

Trading

HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Supra du Quebec half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — HFX Wanderers FC 60% and Supra du Quebec 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 50% | Supra du Quebec 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 2.08 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.998 / defence 0.982 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 HFX Wanderers FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 59% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to HFX Wanderers FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is HFX Wanderers FC at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: HFX Wanderers FC 70% | Supra du Quebec 75% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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