HFX Wanderers FC 2-3 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates HFX Wanderers FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec meet at Wanderers Grounds in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 July 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
HFX Wanderers FC at Wanderers Grounds this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Supra du Quebec (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — HFX Wanderers FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Supra du Quebec in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for HFX Wanderers FC, 1 for Supra du Quebec and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Supra du Quebec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Supra du Quebec half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — HFX Wanderers FC 64% and Supra du Quebec 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 46% | Supra du Quebec 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 2.08 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.998 / defence 0.983 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 HFX Wanderers FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 59% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to HFX Wanderers FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is HFX Wanderers FC at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: HFX Wanderers FC 70% | Supra du Quebec 75% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 59% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 2.08 / Supra du Quebec 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.998 / def 0.983 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Supra du Quebec xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 22:00 on Friday 24 July 2026 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec?
HFX Wanderers FC 2 - 3 Supra du Quebec.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 59% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec?
Record (1 meetings): HFX Wanderers FC 0W | Draws 0 | Supra du Quebec 1W.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from HFX Wanderers FC's attack rating (1.00) and Supra du Quebec's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.22
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.06
Supra du Quebec xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
2%
46.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.06 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 2D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Supra du Quebec sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 1.00 for Supra du Quebec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — HFX Wanderers FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Supra du Quebec have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HFX Wanderers FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.36 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: HFX Wanderers FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Supra du Quebec in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Supra du Quebec away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
HFX Wanderers FC
0
Draws
2
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 2 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 0, Supra du Quebec have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when HFX Wanderers FC 2-3 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for HFX Wanderers FC, 75% for Supra du Quebec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 50% (Supra du Quebec).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of HFX Wanderers FC's games and 75% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 50% of Supra du Quebec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Supra du Quebec defy the odds to beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-3 at Wanderers Grounds, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 2.08 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.06 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Supra du Quebec outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 59% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 17%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Supra du Quebec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 46%, Supra du Quebec 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.00 PPG, Supra du Quebec 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Supra du Quebec win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.