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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant HFX Wanderers FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat Pacific FC 3-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 24, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 2.25 xG and Pacific FC 0.83 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.85 against Pacific FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 68% | Draw 21% | Pacific FC 11%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 61%, Pacific FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Pacific FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.22 PPG, Pacific FC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights