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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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HFX Wanderers FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat Pacific FC 3-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.33 xG and Pacific FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Pacific FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 37% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 35%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 58%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 PPG, Pacific FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights